The Niño 3.4 Index results were released for October, so we have an update on Umi™ performance relative to both ECMWF and NOAA forecasts.
In September 2024, ECMWF's SEAS5 forecasting system flipped from predicting neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific for the rest of the year to predicting a significant La Niña.
At this point, Planette's Umi™ was one of only a handful of models continuing to predict neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific.
In October 2024, however, ECMWF's SEAS5 flipped back to neutral conditions, aligning closely with Umi™ forecasts once again.
Umi™ has shown remarkable consistency in its ENSO predictions, even as other models, like ECMWF's SEAS5, have flip-flopped between Neutral and La Niña conditions.
The NOAA NCEP model has consistently predicted La Niña conditions in its forecasts over the last 5 months, which have never actually materialized. However, we see a lot of news media like NPR latching onto this La Niña news, even though it's unlikely that a La Niña event will materialize this fall or winter.
Future Outlook: We're excited to bring you new ENSO developments throughout the winter and into spring, especially since Umi™ is the only model to break through the notorious spring predictability barrier. Umi™ subscribers will continue to receive monthly updates of our ENSO forecasts to help with adaptation planning and risk mitigation.
We'd like to offer you free access to Umi™ so you can experience the most accurate Niño 3.4 forecast on the planet for yourself. Please register here.
