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From Potential to Possible to Actual: How Real-World Weather Events Emerge in Forecasts

Extreme weather is on the rise on our warming planet.  In a world where wildfires, intense precipitation, and severe storms impact lives and livelihoods, a good weather forecast can provide the critical information needed to manage risk and mitigate the worst outcomes.  

But exactly how far ahead can long-range weather forecasts provide a heads-up on a likely extreme weather event?  And how do these forecasts evolve from months, to weeks, to days before a severe storm, intense rainfall episode, or heatwave?  In this weather webinar, we review three case studies of extreme weather events over the past year, where long-range forecasts indicated that severe weather was likely on the way months before it arrived.  Through these case studies, we explore protocols for how long-range forecasts can be used by planners and operators to mitigate risk through weather-ready strategies, deployed in stages as the likelihood of severe weather goes from potential to possible to actual.  

Register here: https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/4t0eHWndQkihopBSramKnw

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January 21

2026 Long-Range Weather Outlook

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February 25

Meet El Niño: Introducing the Most Important Driver of Global Weather Volatility