Our Forecasts: An Explainer
We don't want extreme weather to take you by surprise. Planette's patent-pending forecasting workflows provide state-of-the-art intelligence on extreme weather risks, 3 months to 5 years ahead. Giving you the time to be prepared, for security and peace of mind.
Here's how our forecasts work.
01
An Unknown Future
Let's say that you're looking at the percentage chance of a 1-in-100 year extreme heatwave over Seattle, Washington. You might have a bumpy time series of the historical risk, with lots of ups and downs. And you want to know what will happen in the future, say, over the next several years.
Historical Time Series
The Unknown Future
Historical Time Series
A Simple Forecast of the Future
02
Basic Forecasts
The simplest way to project the risk over future years is to assume that it lies somewhere in the range of the recent historical observations. This range is very large.
03
Trend-Based Forecasts
More sophisticated forecasts account for both the increase in risks due to climate change, in addition to the recent range of the historical data. The forecast range is still generally large.
Historical Time Series
A Trend-Based Forecast
Trend due to Climate Change
Historical Time Series
Our Forecast
04
Planette's Forecasts
Planette's state-of-the-art forecasts account for year-to-year ups and downs in the risk, yielding a much tighter predicted range that varies for each forecasted year. Planette combines recent advances in Earth System modelling and physics-guided AI methods to get more clarity on what the future holds, so decision-making can be informed and data-driven.
